4 months of ready have lastly borne fruit. Consumer potholer54 on YouTube finally launched his “Half Two” follow-up to his “conservative answer” to international warming. Sadly, greater than half of it consists of the identical pitch as in Half One. The remaining consists of weak defenses of capitalism and a too-little, too-late enlargement of his listing of options. Worse but, he ignores clear proof that one answer he touts, failed spectacularly to ship.
Earlier than you start, hearth up the cooktop and pop a batch of popcorn. You will want fifty minutes, give or take three, to observe the 2 movies in sequence:
Potholer54 spends a quick second to quote his foremost conservative authority: Margaret Thatcher. Your editor won’t query the authenticity of the video clips he consists of in each elements. As an alternative CNAV questions the sources, and the soundness, of the recommendation Baroness Thatcher acquired and may nonetheless be getting. Certainly, to paraphrase the late Spencer Tracy, CNAV finds that the arguments individuals advance for anthropogenic international warming are sound. Mere sound. And a cacophony at that. To listen to Margaret Thatcher sounding like Ned Ludd ought to jar anybody out of his uncritical idolatry.
Three many years after the longer term Baroness made that “collection of worldwide speeches,” Phil Jones needed to come clean with bragging about falsification of knowledge. “I’ve simply accomplished Mike’s Nature trick…to cover the decline.” Your editor, as Essex County Conservative Examiner, had, hours earlier than, revealed his remarks. Two years later got here recent proof that Phil Jones and firm knew they have been mendacity all alongside.
Remarkably, one can nonetheless obtain the Climategate Archive. CNAV hopes you saved a few of that popcorn. The obtain will take twelve minutes at about 90 KBps. That’s ninety thousand characters a second.
Potholer54 provides this no point out. He uncritically accepts the general public releases from the worldwide warming gamers as true and proper. Moreover, he will get “political correctness” backwards. Right now, denying international warming is politically incorrect. NBC’s Chuck Todd (Meet the (De)Press(ed)) confirmed this just lately.
The true objectives of the worldwide warming motion
Someday after Potholer54 launched his Half Two, Doña Alejandria (that’s now-Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.) launched her newest menace. She is going to introduce within the now-friendly Home of Representatives, a decision to create a brand new Choose Committee. She calls it the “Inexperienced New Deal.” Her laws will activity this committee with ending American use of fossil fuels. “That is going to be the New Deal, the Nice Society, the moon shot, the civil rights motion of our era,” she says.
Learn her invoice, decision, or no matter she pleases to name it, for yourselves. The Committee’s constitution will process the brand new Committee to draft new legal guidelines to:
- Make the American financial system “greenhouse fuel emissions impartial.” (Does that embrace water vapor?)
- “Considerably draw down greenhouse gases from the environment”
- “Promote financial and environmental justice and equality.”
To that finish, amongst different issues, the Committee may have “investigative jurisdiction” and the facility to carry hearings. Hearings? Kangaroo courts can be a extra apt time period!
CNAV simply had a depraved concept, a propos of Jack Nicholson’s well-known remark that
there’s nothing on God’s earth sexier than a lady you must salute within the morning.
Doña Alejandria might headline a Millennial Pin-up Calendar. Have her gown in a tight-fitting white uniform with baby-blue trim and white jack boots. The tunic ought to have the designation UNCLIFOR stitched above her left breast. Have her take fight stance, cradle an AR-18, and level it on the digital camera.
Potholer54 in all probability gained’t care to testify earlier than the Inexperienced New Deal Committee. (That’s assuming Doña Alejandria would even favor him with a Request for Remark.) However he makes an invalidating mistake anyway together with his description of carbon tax coverage in Australia. He cites one instance of considered one of Australia’s largest employers managing to scale back its “carbon footprint” and keep worthwhile. A. J. Bush and Sons is a particular case. The corporate had methane out-gassing from its personal waste-water ponds. Once they collected this methane and burned it to warmth their furnaces, they purchased much less coal. In order that they saved cash on purchases in addition to on taxes.
Towards that comes a narrative potholer54 failed to say. South Australia misplaced energy for a full day after a bout of load-shedding. A commentator quickly warned that this might occur elsewhere in Australia.
Why did South Australia lose energy? As a result of it shut down its coal crops and now has little or no backup. So when lightning and excessive winds struck and blew down a number of transmission towers, South Australia went darkish.
Elon Musk proposed to put in batteries capable of maintain 100 megawatts (sic) of energy to satisfy peak demand. Fortune journal, commenting on this, in all probability meant 100 megawatt-hours. In any case, even they stated it wouldn’t clear up the essential drawback. Batteries can mitigate intermittency however not insufficiency of energy.
And insufficiency is the issue. Floor-based photo voltaic and wind energy can’t carry the bottom load. Potholer54 thinks they will. He thinks mistaken.
The place does the cash go?
Potholer54 does comply with the revenues from the carbon tax. The federal government used these revenues to:
- Relieve revenue taxes, no less than partially,
- Remit money to offset greater electrical payments, and even
- Assist purchase “power saving units” to scale back combination demand.
That’s all very nicely. Nevertheless it nonetheless quantities to a redistribution of wealth. Which is to say, a high quality. Once more, the issue of an absence of proof of primary wrongdoing stays. All the first witnesses who testified to that, turned out to be mendacity intentionally.
Potholer54 presents a ridiculous false dichotomy. To promote the choice to carbon taxes, which is cap-and-trade, he describes a hypothetical neighborhood the place neighbors promote empty area of their rubbish bins earlier than assortment. The choice? “Until you assume the federal government has no enterprise amassing rubbish anyway, and also you should be free to dump it wherever you want.” Nonsense. Merely saying the federal government has no enterprise amassing rubbish, would nonetheless depart you liable for disposing of it correctly. Personal contractors routinely collected rubbish in a single unincorporated neighborhood close to Memphis, Tennessee, earlier than the town annexed it. That occurred in 1969. Your editor, a resident of that neighborhood on the time, can bear direct witness.
The consumer additionally doesn’t carry the analogy via utterly. So to proceed the thought experiment, let’s assume the rubbish authority lowers the dimensions of every rubbish bin by ten gallons a yr. Ultimately you’d see some indicators of panic. The neighborhood would hit all-time low on discount of disposable waste. But the federal government would refuse to gather an oz extra. Moreover, it might not permit anybody else to gather the surplus. The directive would come down from on excessive: Reside with it!
Potholer54 doesn’t restrict his “conservative” testimonials to Baroness Thatcher. He mentions former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.). He even exhibits him sitting down with Nancy Pelosi to agree together with her on international warming. Battle of curiosity alert! Although these two politicians hail from totally different Events, they’re each members of the Council on Overseas Relations. That Council does greater than subscribe to a shiny journal. It’s the largest globalist group, plumping for one-world authorities.
This illustrates the secondary drawback with argumentum ab auctoritate, the first drawback being unreliability. Typically one’s “authorities” have much less qualification than one supposes.
Floor-based photo voltaic and wind energy are notoriously dilute sources. You want a whole lot of land over which to seize vital rays and breezes. However Potholer54 treats the mistaken drawback: uncooked supplies. He asserts that making photo voltaic panels merely wants a unique mixture of minerals than does constructing a coal-fired steam turbine. True sufficient, however that turbine has a decrease footprint than acres of photo voltaic panels and orchards of wind generators. One measures the focus of power per unit land space, not solely per unit mass of gasoline and structural stuffs.
The videographer additionally asserts that photo voltaic panels and wind generators require low upkeep. True sufficient, they don’t require refueling. However photo voltaic panels do require common cleansing. (One image within the video exhibits an African lady hosing down a photo voltaic panel. How does that play in lands the place consuming water is like liquid gold?) Wind generators, with their shifting elements, put on out. They want common lubrication and alternative of rotor blades, rotor shafts, and parts of the dynamos, amongst different issues.
To make certain, roofing corporations like GAF and CertainTeed already supply merchandise for anybody wanting to gather the solar’s rays that fall on his roof. Tesla competes instantly with them with the brand new photo voltaic shingle they’ve underneath improvement. However most owners gained’t gather sufficient of the solar’s rays to fulfill the complete wants of the house. (They could in locations like Mexico, the American Southwest, and Australia, however even that may be a knife-edge stability.) That’s even assuming one doesn’t purchase an electrical automotive! CNAV referred to as for an estimate for photo voltaic enhancement of the roof of its South Central Virginia “headquarters.” That estimate promised solely a seventy % discount in outdoors electrical energy buys. Seventy % is just not 100.
In reality, potholer54 got here a cropper by picturing a automotive driving on a “photo voltaic street.” He meant solely to point out that photo voltaic panels might help the load of a automotive. In reply to persistent feedback later, he condemns photo voltaic roads as “horrendously costly and completely unworkable.”
At t = 19 minutes 35 seconds, potholer54 lastly mentions applied sciences aside from ground-based photo voltaic and wind energy. Geothermal power bears point out. So does nuclear energy. In mentioning that, potholer54 undoubtedly dangers dropping a few of his viewership. Recall: a lot of the members of the “Depart it within the floor” crew additionally cry, “No nukes!” (He gained’t lose all his viewers, although. James Hansen at NASA has already advocated nuclear energy to switch coal.)
The most important drawback with nuclear energy goes past security. One can’t ramp up and ramp down a nuclear energy plant almost as shortly as one can a coal-fired plant. New reactor designs like Pebble Mattress Modular Reactors would remedy that drawback. Elon Musk’s utility-sized batteries might additionally play a task. Cost them at night time; discharge them throughout peak hours. Such an enhancement may make the grid a lot safer. (How curious that the videographer didn’t point out this. It might improve his case.)
A brand new twist on biofuels
He then mentions biofuels, and right here he makes the perfect enchancment to date in that argument. Point out biofuels to most, they usually assume corn and sugar cane. However potholer54 proposes utilizing stubble that farmers already should discard as a by-product of rising meals crops! He additionally proposes capturing CO2 (say, from making cement) and utilizing it to feed an enormous algal tradition. That course of, one other method of accumulating photo voltaic power, may additionally produce a usable gasoline. It’s nonetheless a carbon gasoline, however the method removes CO2 that might have gone into the environment in any occasion.
The method additionally produces a brand new dietary complement referred to as astaxanthin. Astaxanthin is likely one of the strongest antioxidants out there and will in all probability cease plenty of cancers. Many various-medical advisers swear by it. Present costs for it make it virtually value constructing the challenge only for that.
Right here potholer54 acknowledges an actual concern the worldwide warming crowd provides brief shrift.
Ask the general public to sacrifice their way of life, or dig into their wallets, for the sake of their fellow human beings, and perhaps a noble 5 % of the inhabitants may do this. Make it worthwhile, and everybody however probably the most dimwitted might be on board!
Truly that 5 % mightn’t embrace probably the most strident international warming alarmists. Think about the journey logistics of the Fifteenth Convention of Events in Copenhagen in December of 2009. 140 enterprise jets! 1200 chauffeured limousines, which means each obtainable limousine on the continent! Nor did the profligacy cease at that degree. Successive Conferences of Events have had much more extravagant combination journey budgets for his or her conferees.
However potholer54 deserves credit score even for mentioning the second half. A venture should supply worth past the doubtful “worth” of worldwide warming “mitigation.” Even by saying it, he acknowledges that most individuals gained’t purchase the notion. However they’ll purchase one thing they will use, or that may save them cash, instantly.
At about t=22 minutes, he turns his consideration to hydrogen as a gasoline. Clearly he understands the issue. Hydrogen is a secondary gasoline, not a main. One should use power to extract it from water, nor can one transport it simply. Once more, he primarily needs to make use of ground-based photo voltaic and wind energy to make it. (Instantly he doesn’t point out his different options any longer.)
So he proposes to move hydrogen as ammonia, which one can transport much more simply. One also can convert this ammonia again to hydrogen and nitrogen on the level of use.
So the place does one get the facility? He cites this text from Forbes calculating that 43,000 sq. miles of photo voltaic panels might generate as much as 17.four terawatts. That’s (so far) the whole power price range of the world. That space, says Forbes, would take up not more than 1.2 % of the Sahara Desert. However it might occupy almost all of the Mojave Desert within the US. Fortunately, the US has greater than the Mojave. It shares the Sonoran Desert (100,000 sq. miles) with Mexico, for instance.
However one drawback stays. Even the deserts of North America are wealthy ecologies. They might endure badly if people successfully blotted out the daylight from them. (To say nothing of some people who truly stay there!) The Sahara’s drawback is, and can stay, geopolitical. Desert Energy will exchange Oil Energy. Frank Herbert (Dune, and so forth.) predicted this.
One supply of power stays which potholer54 by no means mentions: outer area. In area, and particularly in geostationary orbital area, the solar by no means stops shining. Construct a really giant photo voltaic battery in area, tow it into the right orbit, and beam the power to Earth as a “maser,” a coherent microwave beam. One might purpose that beam at a receiving station taking over no extra room than a standard nuclear energy plant. Then one could make all of the ammonia one wants. Or one can feed power into the grid to cost electrical car batteries, run trains, or energy houses and companies.
So why doesn’t that bear point out? That would turn out to be obtainable much more shortly than a lot of the methods that do seem.
Fusion energy can be the last word “almost-renewable.” Improvement of fusion appears to have stalled. However a number of laboratories are nonetheless engaged on it. Who can inform what progress they may make in forty years?
Response, favorable and unfavorable, has poured in because the video launched. Probably the most salient response comes from this YouTube consumer. The half most value repeating, follows:
Thomas Edison from the 1880s for 10 years tried to enhance battery know-how, which just about bankrupted him and solely made minute positive aspects. Battery know-how has improved considerably however nonetheless no recreation changer since then. What makes you assume that batteries will get any higher? Even Elon Masks doesn’t consider battery know-how hasn’t acquired a lot additional to go. But you and your viewers assume it’s our (sic) what going to save lots of us. Simply by making it cheaper. For granted how a lot carbon was spent making these units.
A gasoline cell may need higher vary than a battery pack. Gasoline cells, not lithium-ion batteries, took NASA to the moon and again, six occasions. (Seven in the event you rely Apollo XIII, although the crew couldn’t land and almost died after an oxygen tank blew up.)
The International Warming Coverage Discussion board and Basis
One other commenter talked about the International Warming Coverage Discussion board and Basis. The Basis has existed since 23 November 2009: 4 days after this reviewer broke the Climategate Archive story. Lord Lawson, one of many co-founders, stated this on the time:
Final yr I introduced out a guide on international warming which (moderately to my shock) generated an unlimited suggestions, virtually all of it constructive. Quite a few those that wrote to me, who included scientists, engineers and others with an skilled background, urged me to not depart the matter there however to comply with it up ultimately. It was this that led me to discovered the think-tank we’re launching at present, which may obtain excess of I might alone.
So clearly the GWPF was beneath improvement earlier than somebody leaked the Climategate Archive to this reviewer. Logical minds assume alike.
To anticipate an apparent and customary objection, the Basis provides this disclaimer:
With a purpose to clarify its full independence, it doesn’t settle for presents from both power corporations or anybody with a big curiosity in an power firm.
That might presumably shut out Tesla in addition to BP, Exxon-Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, et al.
A rapier thrust towards pc fashions
The International Warming Coverage Discussion board and Basis appears to be the one trustworthy dealer on this debate. They exist primarily to look at coverage prescriptions and the way properly (or unwell) they work. This disclaimer from them speaks the loudest:
We regard observational proof and understanding the current as extra necessary and extra dependable than pc modelling or predicting the distant future.
Remark: on 15 December 2018, a snowstorm dumped almost a foot of snow on south central Virginia. An area estimator for the solar-panel firm SolarTyme stated it was the heaviest snowfall he might keep in mind seeing. Faculties closed for 2 straight days and opened late on the third.
Not one of many present pc fashions would ever have allowed for such a snowfall. To listen to the media hype, one would anticipate the subsequent era by no means to know any such factor as “snow” existed.
Statement: every time former Vice President Albert A. Gore (D) makes a speech, the climate someplace in america turns unseasonably chilly. This occurs particularly within the wintertime.
Remark: not one of many politicians and UN bureaucrats screaming the loudest about international warming, will lead by instance. Let’s see one Convention of Events to which the delegates journey commercially. Or at the least allow them to journey utilizing a handful of chartered twin-engine wide-body airliners. Not 2 hundred personal jets!
As earlier than, potholer54 begins from a weak spot. He accepts uncritically the worldwide warming alarmist place and refuses to listen to any dissent from it. (At the very least he doesn’t delete dissenting feedback from his dialogue; perhaps he regards these as proof.) The options he advocates all depend on utilizing the solar and wind in some type—and solely on earth. True, he cites his sources (within the video description). However he cites just one aspect of the argument.
Let’s assume all the things he says is true. We will even embrace deriving 17.four TW of energy from 43,000 sq. miles of photo voltaic batteries). Does he actually anticipate the world to grant to the Arab League the near-exclusive license to generate liquid ammonia to furnish all its electrical energy? Citing Newt Gingrich provides the identical away, as a result of Newt Gingrich is a globalist and has been all through his political profession.
And as soon as once more: statement, remark, remark. This reviewer nonetheless has recent reminiscences of shoveling away almost a foot of snow in south central Virginia. But the videographer insists international warming is actual, people are accountable, and people should pay. In so doing he performs into the palms of UN bureaucrats and the brand new Bronx (or is it Yorktown?) firecracker within the US Home of Representatives.